Here is an updated version of my 2014 article – Fantasy Premier League Success; Consistency is Key!
Here in this article are some of my key tactics and tips in order to help achieve Fantasy Premier League (FPL) success. It is based on my FPL title winning experience of 2012/13, and also my two top 1000 overall final ranking positions in the following 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons.
Consistency is key:
In order achieve FPL success, whether it be winning your mini league, or finishing high up in the overall world rankings, or even challenging for the overall FPL title, it is important to achieve good consistency.
Consistency is;
…‘The quality of achieving a level of performance which does not vary greatly in quality over time’ (Oxford dictionary).
….In other words, or in FPL terms, try and get a good Gameweek (GW) ranking score in the majority of GWs over the whole thirty eight GW season. This way your FPL arrows should mainly be green, and not red, and therefore, you will climb up the overall FPL rankings.
It is not possible to have good or great GW ranking score every single GW, and the inevitable poor GW scores will happen. However, the key is to make sure that your bad GWs are not as bad in relative terms as your rivals, or the FPL managers around y
It is also important to keep these bad GWs to a minimum, and if you do have a bad GW, it is important to bounce straight back from them with a good GW. This way your red arrows will be kept to a minimum, and vice versa, your green arrows will be a plenty.
How to get FPL consistency…
Firstly, the basic rules of any fantasy football game, including FPL, need to be applied.
Some basic FPL rules/tips:
My number one tip in FPL is;
…’Play the fantasy football game the way it is set up to play – and play it in relation to how the Premier League is’.
…This way you can maximise your FPL points potential – per player, per GW, over the course of the 38 GW season. Therefore, study the FPL game points scoring rules, including the Bonus Point System, which is often tweaked each season, and it has been tweaked again for the 2015/16 season. Match these ways of scoring points to the Premier League players, their teams, and their managers style off play (are the managers defensive/attacking/varied). Then check if these players are value for money, and if so, how.
For more information regarding my number one FPL tip I have written an article here: https://matthewmartyniak.wordpress.com/2015/07/16/play-the-fantasy-football-game-the-way-it-is-set-up-to-play-in-relation-to-premier-league-itself/
Another basic tip/rule of FPL is to pick a squad full of players who are guaranteed starters for their clubs week in, week out. If your players are not playing, you limit your chance significantly of getting consistent FPL points on a weekly basis.
Planning and preparation – including preseason (with critical analysis):
Once the FPL basic foundations are in place, you are ready for the very next GW, which is GW1 of the new 2015/16 season. It is not necessarily important to get off to a flying start (although it would help if you did), but it is important not to get off to a bad start. I define a ‘start’ as being the first block of three GWs (GW1-3).
Not getting off to a bad start, and maybe getting off to flying start, can be achieved by some good pre-season planning and preparation. From my FPL experience, good planning and preparation, pre-season and each GW during the season, is key for FPL success. It is no coincidence that the top FPL managers who achieve FPL success season after season have one thing in common, which is good planning and preparation, prior each GW.
Good planning and preparation can be achieved not just by gathering the information available, but also by working out accordingly what to do with this information. Therefore, start by studying all the Premier League teams pre-season friendlies. Look at their line-ups, their formations, their key players, the players positions, the minutes played, the new signings, and the players who have left. Also are the players injured or not, have they been injured or not, have they had a full pre-season or not – if not why? And therefore, are they lacking match fitness &/or sharpness &/or confidence?
Also look at the managers tactics and style of play – for example, will this help or hinder the FPL player you are looking at, and if so in what way? All these question marks are some examples of FPL critical analysis of each given situation. When I think deeply and question each area of FPL, I find it amazing how I often end up with a whole host of more questions, which I’d never of thought of if I didn’t question it. This may not be to everyone’s liking, but working things out and leaving no stone unturned gives me the best chance of making the best possible informed FPL decsion.
You can often find out all the relevant information on each Premier League club website, and also in their fans forums. Some newspapers can also give you this information, but I find dedicated FPL forums, websites, or blogs, give the greatest and most relevant FPL information.
Your GW1:
Do not worry too much about your GW1 team, your squad, you total points, and GW1 ranking. Preseason is a tricky time for us FPL managers to determine what’s what, and therefore it makes GW1 about as a lottery as FPL comes. Once the season is under way then things slowly, or quickly at times, become more clear and ‘easier’.
Do not worry about a bad start…
Although a good start to the season helps, in my previous two FPL seasons I did not get off to the best of starts as I was over the one millionth ranking position both times. However, by GW6 in both seasons, things had become clearer in terms of Premier League players and their positions, the teams, the managers and their styles of play, and also the new changes to the FPL game. By this time I had managed to steady the rocking FPL ship, and then I started to climb up the FPL overall rankings – mainly due to having good consistency.
So don’t give up on your FPL goals if you have a bad start – it’s a long season and anything can happen!
Don’t take your eye off the ball…
FPL, like football in real life, is dynamic, not static – and also just like in real life football, a week is a long time in the world of FPL, as lots of things can happen. For example, there can be injuries during the week. Players get injured in training more than they do in matches – and speaking of matches, there are usually midweek games in Europe and domestic cups, and sometimes there are International games. Players can also be rested, rotated, and even prioritised for Premier League games, cup games, and even Internationals.
Also keep an eye on the active FPL transfer market. This is so you can make sure you know exactly what is going on with your current or future players, whether it being a sale or a purchase. Player values go up and down based on the net transfers in or out. If a certain player reaches the transfer threshold through net transfers, the player price will either increase or decrease by a maximum of 0.1m at a time, with a maximum of 0.3m price change occurring over a GW.
The player price changes occur once a day, and the time of the price change is usually around 2am U.K. time.
You will, however, need to check this time as it may have changed for the new 2015/16 season. Also you will need to check if the price change system has been altered, or not. The price change system was altered last season, with the biggest impact being on FPL managers who played their wildcards not being able to make as much profit on buying and selling players as they did in seasons past, especially during the extended Premier League breaks whilst the International football was on.
There are FPL websites out there that have this price change information, and they are usually updated regularly throughout the day and night showing the net transfers in, and net transfers out, for each Premeir League player.
Do not let a GW slip by…
FPL GWs come thick and fast, especially if there are some midweek GWs. To help achieve good FPL consistency, and to keep those FPL arrows pointing in the right direction, it is important focus on each and every GW, from the very first GW1, to the very final GW38.
Delay transfers:
As previously mentioned, a week is a long time in football and FPL. Therefore, I find not rushing into a transfer is beneficial to achieving my FPL consistency. Too many FPL managers make quick and rash decisions to make a transfer (or transfers) early in the week, or on a Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, even before a GW has finished. Then as a result, they may run into further problems towards the end of the week if team news has changed due to injuries, rest, rotation, form, suspensions, etc….
Team value:
Do not worry about your team value, or your players going up or down by 0.1m to 0.3m during the week. I have found over the many FPL seasons that I have played that you can own the players you want if you pick the ‘right squad’ more often than not – and your player prices will inevitably increase as a result of your good players doing well.
My final team value in my FPL title winning season was only around 106m, which was the lowest team value of all my rivals. The following two FPL seasons my team value was also around the 106m value at most.
Ownership:
I find having a mixture of good form moderate to high ownership players, along with having a mixture of low ownership quality players (Good differentials), has helped me achieve good FPL consistency over the past three seasons in giving me a significant amount of green arrows compared to red arrows.
It is difficult to say the exact ideal ratio of moderate/high ownership players to low ownership players – but I have found around seven moderate to high ownership players was my optimum. This way having a good percentage of your starting eleven being moderate to high ownership good quality players means if these players score well, you will not get left behind in the overall rankings, as a good percentage of other FPL teams will have some, or most of these players.
Conversely, if your mod/high ownership players do poor or average, then so do too most of the other FPL teams out there – so it is all relevant…in a way. Now if your four low ownership players, or your good differentials, do well, then your arrow will mainly be a green one. If you flipped this ratio around and had more differentials than moderate/high popular players, then you are at risk of being left behind in the rankings, as you are relying on your differentials to do well every GW – which is not possible in FPL.
Conversely, if differentials who you do not own go in to do well that particular GW, you will not get ‘hurt’ too much, as very few managers will actually own these players.
By having the ‘optimum ratio’ of good form moderate/high ownership players along with some quality differentials, you ‘creep forward’ up the overall FPL rankings, slowly but surely, and with plenty of green arrows. I call this my Creep Formation tactic, as my FPL team creeps forward, in formation – and I have applied this tactic with relative success over my past three FPL seasons. In my title winning 2012/13 season, I slowly crept closer and closer to the top each GW. The following 2013/14 season in my title defence, I crept slowly in formation from a GW5 overall rank of over one million, up to 175th in the world by GW29. In the end this tactic helped me achieve a top 1000 overall ranking finish.
Last season (2014/15), I applied the Creep Formation tactic again, using roughly the same ratio of seven to four. After being ranked again around the one millionth position after GW6, I managed to creep up the FPL rankings and up to around 1,300 overall ranking position by January, and in the end it helped me secure another top 1000 overall ranking finish.
An important thing to note from my last three seasons is that when I did get a red arrow, they were occasional, or rare. Also most the red arrows I did get did not do me that much damage, ie: I did not drop too many ranking places, and therefore, I did not lose too much ground on the players above me.
Limit captain gambles:
Unless you are playing some serious catch up, or you have a strong gut feeling for a differential captain punt, then it is probably best to stick to a reliable, or obvious, captain pick each GW.
The reliable captain pick of the GW is usually the stand out pick. There maybe more than one reliable captain pick to choose from each GW, but very rarely more than two or three each GW. The most stand out captain of any particular GW is usually the quality form player who also has a good fixture to match.
If you are unsure who are the most obvious and reliable FPL captains each GW, then take a look around fantasy football websites/blogs. You will find each week some run captain polls, where FPL managers vote on who is the top captain pick for that particular GW – and you will most probably find that the top two or three GW captain picks on each site are mainly the same.
The reason for picking a good solid quality reliable captain most GWs, and not gambling your captain pick, is the same reason as the ownership section above. A good captain pick is not just to gain ground on your rivals, it is also not to lose ground on your rivals. So a popular FPL captain pick means that if your captain flops (even the best payers flop), then so do most of the FPL managers out there, and therefore, you do not lose ground, or too much ground, on this important part of the game.
Vice versa, if you pick a gamble captain/low ownership player, and they do not do so well, and the high ownership popular captain pick does well, then your arrow will most probably not only be a red arrow, but it will most probably be a significantly damaging red arrow, and you will fall down the overall FPL rankings.
If FPL managers pick differential low ownership gamble captains, and they have a great week, then they will do well, which is great for them. However, the differential captain picks managers who score well will not really affect your ranking as very few owners (FPL managers) will actually own and captain these gambles. Your gamble captain pick, however, may come off, but not every week. So keeping it simple with solid and reliable top captain picks helps ensures FPL good consistency.
Differentials:
As mentioned earlier in the ownership section, I find having just a few differentials (three or four) is the key to regular green arrows. These differentials, however, have to be of real quality – and they do not just meet the basic FPL tactics – such as they fit the points scoring system reasonably well – but they are also key players for their teams and are guaranteed starters week in, week out.
These good quality differentials have to, and often do, get you good quality FPL points, and if they do get you good points, then your arrows will not just be a normal green, but will be a huge significant green most often than not.
Evidence of FPL consistency being key…
The final GW38 of my title winning 2012/13 season summed up my FPL consistency that season. I kept my eye on the ball each and every GW, and stuck to my own strategy, tactics and game plan, right to the very end. My final GW38 team had the ‘right’ formation of 3-4-3 as the FPL game that season favoured the front seven players, not the defence and keepers. Therefore, I got the basics right in that I set up my FPL team the way the FPL game was set up to to play that season, and I played it in relation to the Premier League itself, that season.
That final GW38 I also had the ‘right ratio’ of mainly having a team of top quality high ownership players, along with a few low ownership differentials who were of top quality and suited the FPL game points scoring system. I also did not gamble my final GW captain pick, who was the quality and in form Gareth Bale with a good fixture. Bale rewarded me with a significant 20pt haul.
My one and only GW38 free transfer was purposely left as late as possible after the final team news was in. Preferably my transfer needed to be a quality differential who was FPL points friendly. This final GW38 transfer was therefore the quality and in form Phillipe Coutinho, who also had a good fixture. His winning goal and two bonus points on this final GW were significant in me gaining that final and ultimate green arrow to propel me to the summit of the FPL rankings – by just two points.
The following two seasons, although I did not win the FPL title again, I achieved a top 1000 finish in each season – and I achieved these finishes by mainly using the same consistency tactics that I utilised during my FPL title winning season.
That’s it…
I hope you enjoyed this article on how to achieve good FPL consistency – and I hope it helps towards you all achieving your FPL goals – which could be winning the overall FPL title!
All the best for the new FPL season everyone – and remember, for FPL success – consistency is key!
Matt 🙂
Matthew Martyniak 