It’s Wildcard time….already!?

….Yes, already!

I decided very early in the week to play my wildcard this Gameweek two (GW2). I have always been a big advocate of playing the wildcard early. I feel it’s best for my FPL strategy, tactics and plans. GW1 is pretty much as a lottery as it comes when trying to pick the ‘right’ starting eleven, and a bench, that will start well and continue to do well over the following weeks. Also the early wildcard enables to jump on board, or ‘ride the crest of the FPL wave’, in getting in the players that have the current form, the points, the fixtures, and the *price rises – whilst avoiding the polar opposites.

*The FPL game dynamics changed last season regarding price changes, in that they were slower initially. This is probably because wildcard transfers, unlike in previous seasons, did not count towards the price changes. Nevertheless, price changes still occurred to almost normal again, especially when not too many wildcards were being played.

The past two seasons I played my wildcards relatively early, in GW4 & GW6 respectively. However, in retrospect I felt at the time, and I still do today, that I played my wildcards back then two to three GWs too late. By then the ‘damage’ was almost done. I missed out on the form and fixtures players (Ramsey & Yaya just to name two in 2013/14!) and the inevitable price changes (rises & falls), and as a result, I was ranked overall around the one millionth position in both seasons. Once my wildcards started to take shape within the following three GWs, I started to make headway up the overall rankings. This headway (in points, ranking, and price rises) however, was slow – and it was mainly slow because lots of other FPL managers above me who I was chasing already had these players who had the current form, the fixtures, and increased value.

Three seasons ago in 2012/13, I played my wildcard immediately post GW1. The circumstances were slightly different back then as I had set my GW1 team up for the Chelsea versus Reading double GW1. I mainly used my wildcard then not just to ride the crest of the FPL wave and get in the form and fixtures players early, but also I did not want six of my players (3 x Chelsea & 3 x Reading) in my GW2 team, and especially by GW3 as they both didn’t have a Premier League fixture (Hence the double GW1). The players I brought in early back then (Michu et al) started well, and continued to do well. These players had the form and fixtures, the team, the managers, the FPL friendly positions on the pitch – and this resulted in accumulating points, price rises, and green arrows very quickly – and this resulted in me having a solid base to work from in the first half of the FPL season, which then grew and became stronger for the second half of the season.

Prior to the start of the 2015/16 FPL season and launch of the FPL game in July, I had planned to have a change in tactics this season by saving and using my wildcard towards the end of the season. This is because when the Premier League fixtures were released in June there is a full Premier League programme on the same weekend as the sixth round of the FA Cup, unlike the previous season. As a result of this Premier League and FA Cup fixture clash this season, there could be many Premier League teams involved in double GWs in the latter part of the season, as it is the Premier League teams who are the teams that are most likely to dominate the FA Cup quarter final weekend, and therefore, their Premier League fixtures will need rearranging – to double GWs.

The last two winners of the FPL, Simon March and Tom Fenley, both saved their wildcards and successfully utilised them in the final straight of the season to help them claim the overall FPL crown. However, this FPL season is different. The January wildcard is no longer, and instead we now have two wildcards – one to be used in each half of the season. So in knowing that we have a wildcard safe and secure for the second half of the season in preparation for the potential double GWs it makes FPL life much ‘easier’ when deciding whether or not to play the early wildcard.

….But the question is when to play this first half of the season wildcard?

So my decision this season, or this week, was relatively simple……Do I ‘ride the crest of the FPL wave’ at the very beginning of the FPL season like I successfully did three seasons ago, or do I miss this wave like I did the last two seasons?

FPL is a predictions game – we can only anticipate what players will be ‘right’ for our team each GW (or in blocks of three GWs as I like to play it) – and I’m doing just that – I am trying to anticipate that some, if not most or all, of the players I have chosen in my GW2 wildcard team to keep on ‘riding the crest of the FPL wave’ by picking up points and price rises, for at least the short term anyway. If not, then they are a simple transfer out to a player that becomes the  ‘new wave’.

My GW2 wildcard team:

I’m not going to go through each player individually to explain their reasoning for being selected in my team/squad, but what I will say is that there is a mixture of uncertainties and risks along with certainties and rewards – who most if not all with form, fixtures, potential points, and potential further price rises, especially if they have another good GW or two – whilst at the same time I have brought two of the big three key FPL players in early; Aguero and Sanchez. I have saved 4.0m in the bank to change and strengthen the team if needed, and also to bring back the third of the three big key FPL players; Eden Hazard, asap if needed…..and maybe even for a cheaper price too if he blanks GW2.

Buying a player low, and selling a player high, is a big part in how the FPL game is set up to play, and when this is done successfully most of the time, and in relation to the Premier League itself, it is a fruitful tactical play. This is because every 0.2m to 0.3m swing in buying and selling players over the first part of the season adds up quickly, and in turn it helps significantly in the mid to latter part of the season to help fund as many big hitting players as you can, especially for the double GWs.

In the end, my early wildcard tactical play may, or may not, work out – only time will tell. But at the moment I feel it is the right decision for me and my FPL strategy, my tactics, and my plans for this 2015/16 season. If it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out…..but if it does work out, then who knows….!

All the best for GW2…..and play your wildcard when it’s right for you and your team, your strategy, your tactics, and your plans! 🙂

My FPL GW1 team/squad

The new Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season is finally here and with so many players to choose from it has been a difficult task for us FPL managers to finalise our teams/squads for the opening round of fixtures. When we pick a good player, we have to leave a good player out. We can’t own them all.

Also it is very difficult to see what’s what regarding how the players, managers and their teams will start, especially the new players, new managers, and new teams. This makes Gameweek one (GW1) of the the FPL pretty much as a lottery as they come. Therefore, I try to reduce this risk, or uncertainty, by picking as many certainties as I can for GW1. Then see how the GW1 goes and start planning again for the next 1-3 GWs once things become more clear.

We have our weekly free transfer and the -4pt hit to correct things quickly if needed. Furthermore, we have a wildcard, which has to be used by the halfway point. I’m a big fan of using an early wildcard to get the players I want on board as early as possible to jump on the form, the points, and the inevitable price rises. Knowing now we have an extra wildcard to use in the second half of the season makes the decision of playing the early wildcard easier than ever.

Here is my Gameweek one FPL team/squad:

Goalkeepers:

I have gone for Hennessy and McCarthy. Simply because I am not a great fan of rotating goalkeepers. Also I don’t usually like to spend too much on goalkeepers, and at 8.0m for these two keepers they are the cheapest pair in the league. By spending minimal outlay on goalkeepers means I am able to maximise my funds for the outfield players, which is where the main FPL points will be.

Also with Speroni confirmed out for at least three weeks, either of these two keepers have a good chance to nail down a position for the short term at least. If they don’t hold down a place when Speroni is back, then it’s a simple transfer out (most probably with my wildcard around GW4).

Furthermore, due to changes in the new bonus points system, goalkeepers this season will get extra chance to get bonus points through saves. This is a reason why I’ve picked the two keepers from a mid table team, in that they have a good chance of getting save points and therefore potential bonus points (BPs), and at the same time may get a clean sheet or two early on.

Defence:

Terry is probably my most picked defender in FPL and in other previous fantasy football games. He is a nailed on starter and a solid reliable performer with good clean sheet potential, especially under Mourinho. Terry is also a good goal threat off set pieces and corners, and he can attract BPs, especially with his many blocks and clearances. His disciplinary record is good nowadays therefore doesn’t pick up many yellow cards.

Kos, similar to Terry, is nailed on starter, a solid reliable performer, and also a good goal threat off set pieces. Arsenal also seemed to have tightened up at the back this past year.

Huth at 4.5m is my first of my three rotating cheap defenders. He again is a nailed on starter after recently signing for his club. He is a decent goal threat too in and around the box. Leicester did well defensive towards the end of last season, and hoping under their new manager they can continue this good form.

Coates at 4.5m is my way into the Sunderland back line for their nice run of opening fixtures. Would prefer PVA due to his attacking threat and guaranteed starts, but he is 5.0m. However, Coates according to recent press reports, is a guaranteed starter at centre half – and with the new BPs system favouring block and clearances, this centre half could be a good pick.

Targett is Bertrands understudy while he recovers from injury. Saints were good at the back last season, so Targett may get a good run out over first few games. Also I only had 4.0m spare for this final defensive position, and this preseason it’s difficult to find a 4.0m defender. As the GWs go by, maybe one or two 4.0m defenders will come to the fore, and hopefully this will be by the time Bertrand is back.

Midfield:

Hazard. Nothing much to say apart from the best FPL and Premier League player in the game last season. He has every chance of going from strength to strength this season.

Cazorla is my Arsenal pick. Really could have gone with any of Walcott, Ramsey or Ozil. Cazorla however is a solid pick and has served me well in the past. He is nailed on starter, and a key player in Arsenal’s set up. Also being on penalty duties helps his points potential.

Yaya is in my team mainly because he’s cheap, he’s committed to Man City this season, he’s on penalties while Aguero gets back up to speed, he’s on free kicks, and may also play further forward this season. Silva is my favourite City midfielder but at 10m I can’t fit him in just yet.

Ritchie is my cheap fourth midfielder pick at 6.0m. His record of goals and assists last season was incredible, albeit it was in the Championship. He great eye for goals and assists is accompanied by him being on corners and set plays, which also helps his points potential. Also the Bournemouth manager, Howe, has stated that he will not change his attacking style of play that was so successful in winning the Championship last season, which is promising news for Ritchie and his owners.

Wanyama is my bargain basement 4.5m fifth midfielder pick. He’s nailed on and is actually a goal threat from open play not just set plays. But really he is just a beach player, so as long as he starts each GW then this is enough. Anything more will be a bonus.

Forwards:

Rooney is my big hitting forward for the opening GWs. Would like Aguero and Costa, but there are too many doubts about minutes and injuries. However, Rooney is explosive when he wants to be, and I’ve always said that Rooney playing up front for Man Utd without RVP is potentially FPL Gold, especially now Rooney could be back on penalty duties again according to recent reports.

Benteke is a goal scorer, this is why he’s in my team. He was almost FPL Gold prior his achilles injury, and since his return he is showing his goalscoring prowess again. Benteke in an attacking Liverpool I expect him to get more chances than he did at Aston Villa, who were not so attacking.

Pelle is my third choice striker. He was frustrating to own at times last season, but he has  started very well in preseason, and also his past few seasons he has got off to a good start goals wise wherever he has been. He is the focal point of a good all round balanced Saints team who have goals in them, so hopefully Pelle can get off to another flyer.

Formation 3-4-3

Captain Hazard

Well that is it for my GW1 team/squad. It was tough to choose but I feel I’ve got a solid and reliable well balanced team. Thankfully I have my wildcard ready if needed early on, which I am planning to play at some point in the opening three to four GWs if needed.